(Translated with www.deepl.com and edited)
Re: “La religion du carbone”, Paul Deheuvels, Membre de l’Institut, http://www.scmsa.eu/archives/SCM_Deheuvels_2023_02_09.pdf
And: “Climate: much ado about nothing! – Conférence de Paul Deheuvels du 09/02/2023 à la SCM”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zeegk_kzgmg
Presentation text: “La religion du carbone”, Paul Deheuvels, Membre de l’Institut
See also: “Ecologie, dérégulation, même combat! – Hervé Machenaud’s 09/03/2023 conference at SCM.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8imlsFbonU
According to prof. Deheuvels: “The 13C isotope accounts for around 1.1% of all carbon, the rest being mainly 12C. Fossil fuels” contain more 13C than 12C. By measuring the ratio of isotopes present in the atmosphere, we can deduce the anthropogenic share of CO2.” (p 15)
Of course, this “more” needs to be defined more accurately. But this will not significantly change the proportions and consequences. Especially if we take into account these two other quotes from the same text:
On rising ppm and climate sensitivity:
“Since 2019, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere has been rising steadily (around 2.3 ppm/year) from the level of 410 ppm reached in 2019. If this trend were to persist, we would reach an atmospheric CO2 level of 577 ppm in 2100 (= 410 + (2.3 x 77) ppm). According to the various models presented in the scientific literature, in the absence of any reduction in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, such a level would lead to a warming in 2100 of between 0.47°C and 0.1°C (see table p.207 in François Gervais’ 2013 book28). « Climate sensitivity » is defined as the warming induced by a doubling of CO2 levels in the atmosphere (from 400 ppm to 800 ppm). In his 2022 book, François Gervais lists, on pp.45-49, no fewer than 110 scientific articles, all of which assess climate sensitivity at a level of less than or equal to 1°C (and sometimes much less)” (p. 14).
On prof. Gervais’ reasoning on chronological order:
“It is clear from these developments that the creation of the IPCC, like its early work, based on the “Mann curve”, was based on inaccurate interpretations of poorly documented data. In particular, the assertion that the global warming observed since 1950 is “unprecedented” is far from expressing a truth accepted by most climatologists.
In its reports AR1-6, the IPCC developed a theory designed to show that the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere was the main factor explaining temperature trends. These assertions are supported by the concomitance of variations in atmospheric CO2 levels and temperatures.
In fact, we must be cautious in asserting that there is a causality between atmospheric CO2 levels (at time t) and temperature (at the same time t). When two time series coincide, this does not mean that variations in one influence the other. The graph below, by François Gervais21 , compares, for the period 1980-2005, the earth’s mean temperature T(t) (solid line) at each instant t (on an annual scale), with the annual variation ϑ(t)- ϑ(t-1) in the rate ϑ(t) of CO2, shifted by 6 months, i.e. ϑ(t+1/2)- ϑ(t-1/2). With a suitable choice of scale for T(.) and ϑ(.), we can see that the curves overlap. This suggests that CO2 levels measured at times t+1/2 = t+6 months and t-1/2 = t-6 months appear to be related to temperature at time t. But, if this is indeed the case, it is the temperature at time t that influences the CO2 level at time t+1/2, and not vice versa” (p. 8).
I had pointed out that the rise in temperature always preceded the accumulation of CO2 before the industrial period, after having drawn attention to the role of permafrost, phytoplankton, atmospheric chemistry at several levels, etc. Given the masses of CO2 already sequestered in the Earth and Ocean over thousands of years compared with those resulting from human production, it was easy to assume that the same time lag (of almost a thousand years) would occur after 1850. This was all the more true given the regularity of this time lag (see: https://louernos-nature.fr/paleoclimat-decalage-temperature-co2/#:~:text=D%C3%A9calage%20entre%20temp%C3%A9ratures%20reconstitu%C3%A9es%20et%20teneurs%20en%20CO2.,variations%20de%20l%E2%80%99orbite%20terrestre%20%3A%20excentricit%C3%A9%2C%20inclinaison%2C%20procession )
The steady increase of 2.3 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere comes from the Observatory on Mauna Loa, one of the planet’s largest and most active volcanoes. Nevertheless, even if we were to double this total percentage – see “climate sensitivity” above – this would change nothing, even if the doubling were mainly of anthropogenic origin (13C!!!).
The fact remains that this measurement of atmospheric content still ignores a great deal about atmospheric chemistry at various altitudes and, above all, about chemistry and photosynthesis in the very lower atmosphere, both on Earth – cultivation, natural sequestration in the Earth, etc. – and on the Oceans.
I also showed that, since 1979, temperatures have been measured by satellite, and therefore when there are no clouds! And in fact, when checked against ground measurements, the discrepancy is very large. (This is no doubt why ground stations are rapidly being closed down.) In fact, the IPCC models, all of which have been tweaked, oscillate disturbingly around the median of these satellite measurements!!!! (see graph below:
In short, Prof. Paul Deheuvels, Member of the Institut, and many of his colleagues and serious scientists – many of them retired, given the almost totalitarian and inquisitorial censorship – are perfectly right to be alarmed. For this new climate religion will not only guilt-trip citizens into an inept quantitative degrowth without socially motivated qualitative growth, which will once again “bind them to the soil” by restricting their mobility; furthermore, it also has the potential to destroy our economies by attacking the micro-economic productivity and macro-economic competitiveness of Social Formations.
Note that life on Earth is carbon-based. Therefore, to make people feel guilty, as in the Bible and the Church, we need to invent an additional original sin that will justify a new caste of priests, low clergy and others servi in camera with their private speculative accumulation supported by the ecological transition backed by speculative Green Bonds financed by public money in place of the recurrent Reduction of the Working Time and the full development of the 5 branches of public Social Security.
I refer you to the texts, often translated into French, in the “Ecomarxismo” category of my website http://rivincitasociale.altervista.org
See also my « Défi aux écologistes, au GIEC et à tous les apôtres du réchauffement climatique » (June 14 2007) on this page of my old experimental site: https://www.la-commune-paraclet.com/Commentaires%20d’actuConstructionFrame1Source1.htm#comment%20d’actualit%C3%A9
Paul De Marco