We all know by now that all the IPCC models – except for the Russian model – on climate warming are wrong and far removed from « observational » data. Years ago, I pointed out, among other things, that the permafrost was not included in the models and that the 410-420 PPM of CO2 in the atmosphere was measured on the Mauna Loa, one of the greatest and most active volcano on the Planet.
The article quoted below makes the point on the relationship between wetland and methane growth. Industrial activities declined with the lockdowns in 2020. Yet, methane increased and most of the increase was due to wetland emission. The article goes into the link of NOx emissions – burning of hydrocarbons in one form or other, in cars and in fossil fuels combustion – and OH – hydroxyl radical (OH). Atmospheric chemistry can induce OH formation from NOx. Since OH acts as a methane sink, less industrial activities eventually lead to less OH, hence more methane in the atmosphere.
To my neophyte eyes this seems like a ground breaking study. First, since we already know that permafrost, peat moss, vegetation and phytoplankton are not or very poorly integrated in the current IPCC models, this finding goes a long way to prove, once again, that the natural non-anthropogenic variations of greenhouse gases is so colossal that human emissions become marginal. By the way, it had long been shown that CO2 concentration in the atmosphere follows and does not precede climatic change. Now we have a reason to believe that it is equally true for methane – not to speak of clouds, the greatest greenhouse gas by far. We will see later that there might be more to it, especially as we look at the role of OH. Coming back to the article, the attempted clarification of the relationship between NOx and OH is enlightening. Of course, it is central to the paper’s main argument, but it equally underlines the sheer complexity and the importance of refining available knowledge on the highly complex atmospheric chemistry. Meteorologists will be interested by the overall relationship correlating methane accumulation and warming in the Northern hemisphere and increased rain in the Southern hemisphere.
Here is the link to the article : « Wetland emission and atmospheric sink changes explain methane growth in 2020 », Shushi Peng, Xin Lin, Rona L. Thompson, Yi Xi, Gang Liu, Didier Hauglustaine, Xin Lan, Benjamin Poulter, Michel Ramonet, Marielle Saunois, Yi Yin, Zhen Zhang, Bo Zheng & Philippe Ciais , Nature volume 612, pages 477–482 (2022), https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05447-w
Some personal questions and arguments:
The fabricated nullity of most IPCC models is laid out here : « Is the IPCC cooking up its data? » Dec.12, 2022, in http://rivincitasociale.altervista.org/is-the-ipcc-cooking-up-its-data-dec-12-2022/
I personally have some doubts about the scales used: if CO2 is beneficial for vegetation, phytoplankton etc then saying that methane is 28 times or 82 times more “harmful” over respectively 100 or 20 years, does not make sense. These scales need to be reformulated in a truly scientific manner. In addition, the transport of methane from one place to another – LNG tankers etc – causes large dispersion in the air; the dispersion seems larger when using transport methods different from pipelines, because it will then happen at each handling. So the role of these wetlands, permafrost layers etc. is probably even more important than stated: and this is good news because they are non-anthropogenic causes. Ergo, the IPCC should be dismantled and the UN Community and Specialised Agencies should focus on protecting health and the environment without regressive preaching, especially when this happens in partnership with private firms and Foundations.
Such debilitating and dangerous partnerships were developed after Reagan and his neocons crews launched their attack on the UNESCO which was then negotiating a more democratic and plural New World Order of Information and Communication. This did not fit well with the agenda pushing for the US-Western control of all means of communication as the US was set to globilise it intra-net technology with the Internet and the World Wide Web. The intention was to enforce a strict control of « the authorised flows of information » of the putative exclusivist empire apt to instill a new « deference to (self-conferred ) Authority », one that would be enforced by the « return » to a philo-Semite Nietzschean Hammer in the forms of censorship – politically correct, gratuitous charges of conspiracy theory etc – as well as in the forms of ostracism and exclusion, the whole thing being backed up by the Patriot Act-Homeland Security and its sequels, including in their European clothing.
UN agencies must return to a strict inter-governmental and public mode. Above all, when dealing with global issues, it is necessary to marshal inter-governmental planning backed by public funds and credit. Only thus will the necessary research and public infrastructures be carried out in lieu of the preaching intended to instill guilt which is well in tune with the profit motive of the transnational firms, Big Pharma, Monsanto and others …
I felt the need to check on •OH and came to regret not being younger because of the windows it opens on atmospheric chemistry and perhaps on the ozone layer … I will therefore only provide some quotes gathered from Wikipedia on Hydroxyl radical and add a few personal comments:
« Understanding the role of •OH in the oxidation process of methane (CH4) present in the atmosphere to first carbon monoxide (CO) and then carbon dioxide (CO2) is important for assessing the residence time of this greenhouse gas, the overall carbon budget of the troposphere, and its influence on the process of global warming » (…)
« Hydroxyl radicals are created in the atmosphere by two principal chemical reactions:
- During daylight hours, a photochemical reaction occurs in the atmosphere where different wavelengths of light interact with water and terpenes (secreted from plants) in the air to produce simpler by-products known as Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS). One of the main types of ROS is the hydroxyl radical.
- In addition, during the entire 24-hour cycle, OH is formed through the reaction between terpenes and ozone. » in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroxyl_radical )
Concerning the ozone layer: It could well be that warmer air, for instance from the warm Pacific Ocean zone, reaches higher altitudes and OH then depletes the ozone layer more. The wind patterns and the Coriolis force will then cause the ozone « hole » to form in its main current location – just like ocean currents cause the dreadful accumulation known as the « ocean of plastics ».
Here are the molecular masses of some important actors in atmospheric chemistry:
Methane molar mass = 16.043 grams/mol
Hydroxyl radical (OH) = 17.0073
Oxygen mass = 15.9994 u
Carbon monoxide = 28.010 g/mol
Carbon dioxide = 44.01 g/mol
One possible chain would go like this: OH is released from vegetation– terpenes – into the atmosphere; as it goes up, it transforms methane into carbon monoxide and then into carbon dioxide; further up it depletes the ozone layer. A great part of the CO2 resulting from this transformation of methane eventually fall back on Earth to feed vegetation, and the cycle continues with all the variations we can imagine if we just glance at the history of climate change and if we keep in mind the extraordinary but still poorly known chemistry processes going on at all levels.
Also concerning viruses – pointing out that the article emphasizes that the human body developed means to protect itself, so that OH does not pass into the blood stream … :
« Effects on pathogens
Hydroxyl radicals are known to be important in the activity of some disinfectants, because they attack essential cell components in bacteria (both gram -ve and +ve) and oxidise the surface structures of viruses. Hydroxyl radicals disrupt the lipid envelope and/or capsid around the virus, causing lysing. They also penetrate the virus’s interior and disrupt the genome. These actions inactivate the virus. The disinfectant properties of hydrogen peroxide arise from these mechanisms.[9] »
Conclusion. We need to know more about the chemistry of the atmosphere at all altitudes. However, the natural non-anthropogenic variations in CO2 and methane are so large that the human impact was and continues to be negligible on climate change. Priority must therefore be given to the protection of human health and of the environment itself – health of vegetation, of cultures and soils and of the animal species… In the end, this is what will provide the best protection for all of us around the Globe. For the rest, we know that only public infrastructures built with governmental planning supported by public funding will allow Humanity to deal with unavoidable changes, whatever they may be.
After benefitting from trillions of QE and other liquidities, bubbling short-term and speculative capital now wants trillions more in Green Bonds; these will be printed at the cost of inflated public debts ultimately paid off by taxpayers. Nevertheless short-term speculative capital is unable to proceed with the construction of the infrastructures needed to provide for the general good and for the strengthening of macro-economic competitiveness which constitutes the very basis on which rests any micro-economic productivity. The logic of quarterly reports and dividend payments leaves no room for the long-term immobilisation of huge amounts of capital. Worse still, this form of capital lives like a parasite by privatizing existing infrastructures. The Enron fiasco was just one instance. One is here sent back to the chapter « Biens publics: sauvons ce qui peut encore être sauvé »in my Tous ensemble freely accessible in the Livres-Books section of www.la-commune-paraclet.com .
I personally believe that words matter but mostly for their content. (« Pour le Grand Manitou/Le mot n’est rien du tout » Georges Brassens). Public goods offered by publicly owned enterprises are the opposite of private goods offered by private enterprises. In our Constitutions both are legitimate. The Italian constitution, which shines for being disregarded by the ruling classes, recognises a mixed public-private economy but makes it mandatory for the State to intervene whenever the private sector proves unable to deliver essential social and public goods. « Commons » is a notion that was ideologically reintroduced after the sound defeat of the public spirit at the hands of Reagan and his Neocons, most particularly with their attack on UNESCO and on the Conference on the Law of the Sea. Reagan suspended US financing to the Unesco and demanded reforms. The US share was then the main financing source for the Unesco, which quickly looked for a compromise.
Commons are a lousy compromise in so far as they help burry the public sector, the core of the Welfare State and of its virtuous circuits of capital, in favor of a partnership with the private sector: one soon ends up with essential social and public services being paid by the State, out of the public purse, but administered for a profit by the private sector, a ruinous choice if there ever was one. However, one knows the strength of fads: hence the Left and all the citizens of good will would be well inspired to talk about public goods offered by non-profit public enterprises, and they should make sure that everyone understands the concept in this way even if they chose to used the term « commons » as a synonym.
Note that most pathetic climate media stars adopt a yo-yo accumulative logic for CO2, as well as for other greenhouse gases … Like Covid media medical stars, they rarely mention their conflicts of interest. In their presentations, pollutants bounce back and forth from the soil to the air and just accumulate, hence the inescapable climate warming. It is puerile at best. Neither vegetation – on land and ocean – nor atmospheric chemistry are really accounted for, hence the scary and guilt inducing reports they specialise in, in order to easily pass their regressive agenda on trusting and gullible masses. Meanwhile, a simple neophyte look at OH tells another much more interesting scientific story, but one that is still in its infancy.
Some reflections on temperature measurements. We stated above that the IPCC models are all grotesquely wrong when compared with observational data, except for the Russian one. We now want to look at the « measurements » themselves. As we know, the ground stations have always been poorly distributed over the Planet, few were located in the Southern Hemisphere. Today, with the excuse of satellites measurements, more ground stations are being closed. In my opinion, this turns out to be a fatal « mistake », perhaps one that was desired in order to obtain the data wished for. For one thing, surface temperatures on land and oceans can only be taken when there are no clouds! And yet, for climate events – ice caps, rain, droughts etc – real – not inferred – surface temperatures seem to me to be primordial; measurements in low, medium and high altitudes are needed to address climatic variations and change: one gathers static evidences on the ground, the other tries to understand the dynamics behind their genesis. Without reliable data on the first, you cannot possibly understand the second. Both are related but distinct.
If that was not bad enough, one of the best scientist on the subject still notes that the IPCC models are warming up twice too fast as they should. See :
«« Data shows there’s no climate catastrophe looming – climatologist Dr J Christy debunks the narrative », ,BizNewsTv , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJv1IPNZQao, 12 dic 2022
Dr John Christy, distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, has been a compelling voice on the other side of the climate change debate for decades. Christy, a self-proclaimed “climate nerd”, developed an unwavering desire to understand weather and climate at the tender age of 10, and remains as devoted to understanding the climate system to this day. By using data sets built from scratch, Christy, with other scientists including NASA scientist Roy Spencer, have been testing the theories generated by climate models to see how well they hold up to reality. Their findings? On average, the latest models for the deep layer of the atmosphere are warming about twice too fast, presenting a deeply flawed and unrealistic representation of the actual climate. In this long-form interview, Christy – who receives no funding from the fossil fuel industry – provides data-substantiated clarity on a host of issues, further refuting the climate crisis narrative.»
One might want to look at this entry: « Satellite temperature measurements », https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements
In it we learn that surface measurements must be carried out when the sky is « cloud free »!!! And what is the greatest greenhouse gas? Vapor, of course, i.e. clouds …
For the troposphere oxygen is used – and, of course, there is less of it as you go up in altitude where it tends to get colder …
Then in the stratosphere they are using carbon dioxide. And this becomes potentially interesting since we have learned that, at this altitude, most of it probably comes – see the respective molecular masses – from methane decomposed by OH in carbon monoxide and then in carbon dioxide; a great part of the latter, because of its molecular mass, will probably go down to be absorbed by the vegetation, phytoplankton, permafrost, peat moss …
Here are some quotes on surface measurements. See also: Sea surface temperature § Weather satellites
« Land surface temperature anomalies for a given month compared to the long-term average temperature of that month between 2000-2008.[7]
Sea surface temperature anomalies for a given month compared to the long-term average temperature of that month from 1985 through 1997.[8]
Infrared radiation can be used to measure both the temperature of the surface (using “window” wavelengths to which the atmosphere is transparent), and the temperature of the atmosphere (using wavelengths for which the atmosphere is not transparent, or measuring cloud top temperatures in infrared windows).
Satellites used to retrieve surface temperatures via measurement of thermal infrared in general require cloud-free conditions. Some of the instruments include the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), Along Track Scanning Radiometers (AASTR), Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and the ACE Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE‐FTS) on the Canadian SCISAT-1 satellite.[9]
(…)
Stratosphere measurements
Stratospheric temperature measurements are made from the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) instruments, which are three-channel infrared (IR) radiometers.[20] Since this measures infrared emission from carbon dioxide, the atmospheric opacity is higher and hence the temperature is measured at a higher altitude (stratosphere) than microwave measurements.»
CONCLUSION:
Be it as it may, the IPCC models are wrong and they cannot be legitimately wrong. The IPCC must therefore be dismantled as a regressive unworthy UN Agency which is wagging a real war against the UN Member States and the World population. As for the UN intergovernmental agencies, now mostly sold to their illegitimate private partners, like WHO is to B. Gates and Big Pharma, they should sever their links to the private sectors in order to reinstate their utter respect for scientific deontology and methodology. Failing that, the BRICS + should considered the rapid creation of alternative strictly inter-governmental World agencies in the various domains.
Paul De Marco