(See also: « Wetland emission, methane growth, OH and some personal questions », December 19, 2022, http://rivincitasociale.altervista.org/wetland-emission-methane-growth-oh-and-some-personal-questions-december-19-2022/ )
The IPCC should be disbanded as a sectarian obscurantist body unworthy of the UN. Here is why:
It has long been known that the IPCC is doctoring its data to get the results it wants in its push to demonize CO2 and in its March to the New Panopticon of frugality –sobriété and climatic lockdown for the masses. This unscientific behavior has now reached new and intolerable heights. The trick simply consists in basing the graphs and projections on new « composite » satellite data which are substituted to observational data on the land and Ocean surface. An honest first year student would blush. Projections equally involve foreword guesses – or calculations ? – about CO2 emissions. The pretext offered is that temperature surface observations are too low! Yet, obviously, it is this surface data that counts if one is concerned with the effect of climate change on the ice cap, on CO2 absorption – permafrost, vegetation, phytoplankton, cultures, atmospheric chemistry etc – and on all the purported consequences of climate warming, from increased and more intense weather events to human discomfort etc.
The UN should abandoned its un-scientific and un-democratic crusade against beneficial CO2 and replace the shibboleths about « global warming » with a defense of the environment founded on the preservation of Human health and of the environment itself, including its aesthetics, because it is a World Heritage to be properly used and preserved for the whole Human Species.
Composite satellite temperature data could be useful, for instance in order to verify seasonal clocks and the amplitude of the observed changes at an altitude range of 800-1100 meters. Here is the basis of this idiosyncratic hypothesis. I live in the City of Joachim of Fiore located between 900-1100 meters in Sila, Calabria. As far as anyone remembers, on August 14 or 15 the temperature switches from summer evenings to autumn evenings. Perhaps at this altitude the Northern zone wind regimes etc are more regular because they are, in part, abstracted from surface micro-climates. In this case, pertinent satellite data would be useful for verification. Yet, to assess global warming with real observational data, surface temperatures on land and Oceans are necessary.
Composite satellite data has been computed into the IPCC models and their « spaghetti » curves since 1979. Before that, the temperature curves and projections relied on surface observations. But these are not offered as comparative data any longer!
Here is the reality of temperature surface observations. All IPCC models are proven wrong except for the Russian one, which closely follows this observational data. (For the whole article see: : https://www.zafzaf.it/clima/ipcc-sr1.5.pdf )
Here is the link which explains CMIPS average and the logic behind it. Note the last sentence of the quotation « this factor alone » etc :
« « Comparing CMIP5 & observations », [Last updated: 11th May 2022]
This page is an ongoing effort to compare observations of global temperature with CMIP5 simulations assessed by the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. The first two figures below are based on Figure 11.25a,b from IPCC AR5 which were originally produced in mid-2013.
The first panel shows the raw ‘spaghetti’ projections, with different observational datasets in black and the different emission scenarios (RCPs) shown in colours. The simulation data uses spatially complete coverage of surface air temperature whereas the observations use a spatially incomplete mix of air temperatures over land and sea surface temperatures over the ocean. It is expected that this factor alone would cause the observations to show smaller trends than the simulations. » https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/comparing-cmip5-observations/
Now take a look at these two graphs. The curves HadCRUT5 give you satellite composite data; note the divergence after 1979 compared to the surface data in the graph above : in https://www.climato-realistes.fr/climat-scenarios-modeles-et-cie/
« … graphique avec en surimpression les températures observées selon l’indicateur HadCRUT5 du Hadley center.»
“Extract from the previous graph for the period 1979-2030 (the year 1979 is a gold standard, marking the beginning of satellite temperature records; 2030 corresponds to the horizon date of the NDCs of the COP21 in Paris). – translated.
Now, you may want to take a look at this next graph, it speaks volumes on the IPCC obscurantist narratives and on the gullibility of masses, especially the Youth who are indoctrinated since early childhood. Look also at the article in which it appears, entitled : « L’Optimum Climatique Médiéval : ce grand oublié », 17 août 2020 / Association des climato-réalistes, https://www.climato-realistes.fr/loptimum-climatique-medieval-prof-alain-preat-novembre-2019/ (You can use an online translator if need be )
Unfortunately, there is nothing new about this demonstration of the mischievous doctoring of data by the IPCC, except the new total elimination of the lower surface data curve !!! Check this article : « Climat : Le Giec règle ses modèles en fonction des résultats recherchés ! » Publication : 7 avril 2018 , http://www.larminat.fr/les2ailes/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=589:climat-le-giec-regle-ses-modeles-en-fonction-des-resultats-recherches&Itemid=101
Translated quote «”Most importantly, he (Frédéric Hourdin ) co-authored a publication titled “The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning” that appeared July 9, 2016, in the online journal of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). In it, he explains that 23 of the leading climate modeling centers were surveyed “to find out how they tune models.” The response was surprising: “22 of the 23 groups reported adjusting model parameters to achieve desired properties. This is a far cry from a scientific method that should not prejudge the results.” »
We all know that solar and wind energy sources are intermittent and inefficient. Without other non intermittent sources of energy, they simply cannot be relied upon. They are heavily subsidized : in the EU, it takes the grotesque form of the unique electricity market which administratively set the price of an energy auction to correspond to that of the last plant called into production for that auction. The last plant called is definitively not the last « marginal unit produced ». Today it is mainly gas, hence because of the Paris Agreement, sanctions and speculation, the highest price imaginable!!! And we know that energy and food are a huge part of the any cost of production … In the USA it takes the form of the huge Inflation Reduction Act which is dead set on substituting relatively cheap and reliable national fossils energy sources with so-called renewables just to lower CO2 emissions, which, however, are beneficial to vegetation. No one should lose sight from the fact that life on Earth is Carbon based and this is probably why the IPCC and other reactionaries want to transform it into a new « original sin »: Repent! Make amends! And be frugal even if you already are close to the poverty line and if you already have lost any remaining hope in the « rising expectations » of citizens and workers alike in our current Western societies ! We also know that these intermittent sources of energy are unaesthetic and poorly recyclable. Now we are told that wind turbines, already known to kill birds, are also affecting the milk production of cows and even causing their death, depending on the type of soil on which the turbines are installed. See:
« Éoliennes – “J’ai reçu plusieurs témoignages d’agriculteurs qui perdaient leur bétail” » Sioux Berger
Sud Radio , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhwcDRXzJDY
We also know that electric cars are not offering a real alternative, at last not one that can be generalised. On the mid to long terms, its overall score on CO2 is not much better that thermal engine cars; they are difficult to recycle; they can self-combust in certain situations – remember Florida after the last hurricane -and they are slow to recharge. Prof Gerondeau has calculated that one would need an energy plant – modular nuclear, really? – every 100 Km to make this feasible … And we know about the increasing price of raw materials. Again, the real problem with transport is not CO2 but fine particulates which mostly come from the erosion of wheels and brakes, which are more difficult to deal with:
A ) « VOITURES ÉLECTRIQUES : On fonce droit dans le mur ! »,
Canard Réfractaire , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9H1z7h4fArA
B1 ) « Critical Raw Materials Act: securing the new gas & oil at the heart of our economy I Blog of Commissioner Thierry Breton », https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_22_5523
B2 )
“La voiture électrique est une absurdité !” – Christian Gerondeau, 4 lug 2022, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zd9ps7ISHl8
And : « Situation critique pour la transition : lithium, cobalt, que peut faire l’Europe ? »,
What about the New Panopticon ?
A ) See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panopticon (During Apartheid, in Soweto, the houses of Native South Africans citizens had no roofs thus allowing for a good surveillance from the air, police helicopters etc; now we have surveillance cameras everywhere)
B) « Climate-Change Lockdowns? Yup, They Are Actually Going There…»
by Tyler Durden, Friday, Dec 09, 2022 – 06:30 AM, Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog, https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/climate-change-lockdowns-yup-they-are-actually-going-there
On Carlos Moreno’s « 15 minute City » : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQ2f4sJVXAI )
The alternative, of course, would be mini-downtowns in big cities respecting the residential, commercial, industrial and park areas with a return to neighborhoods councils, free public transportation etc, in order to democratize the municipal decision process … and to lower traffic bottlenecks as well as the high cost of entering current downtown areas. One cannot really adapt a « 15 minute City » framework to the labor imperatives, even in a full-time full-employment society. Working at a distance is not generally feasible.
Quotes : « Over in the UK, residents of Oxfordshire will now need a special permit to go from one “zone” of the city to another. But even if you have the permit, you will still only be allowed to go from one zone to another “a maximum of 100 days per year”…
Oxfordshire County Council yesterday approved plans to lock residents into one of six zones to ‘save the planet’ from global warming. The latest stage in the ’15 minute city’ agenda is to place electronic gates on key roads in and out of the city, confining residents to their own neighbourhoods. (…)
Of course there are a few people that are loudly objecting to this new plan, but one Oxfordshire official is pledging that “the controversial plan would go ahead whether people liked it or not”. »
As for Emerging countries, they need to look at the – vacuous – promises made relative to the Green Climate Fund – https://www.greenclimate.fund/ – and remember the sad fate that faced the promises made to President Correa for the Yasuni Park … The Green Climate Fund is far from the USD 100 billion/year promised; this is because it is working exactly as it was intended, namely as a trap to keep developing countries at their 1990 development level, with the CO2 excuse … It works like the Montreal Protocol but on a bigger scale. (1) Add to this the new tariffs taking the excluding form of carbon-tax …
These countries equally need to understand the logic of bilateral credit lines swaps in the framework of the New Multilateral World that is fast emerging as well as the importance of economic planning based on public credit, if only within mixed public-private economies. (2)
To conclude, you might want to take a look at the articles in the Categoria Ecomarxismo in this same site (most are translated ) in particular:
1 ) Methodological introduction in the Livres-Books section of the old experimental site www.la-commune-paraclet.com (No desire to be nasty here but the IPCC would urgently need to refresh on scientific deontology and on Modes of reasoning 101 …)
2 ) « Inflation a new absurd ecologist bourgeois cycle is announced with a hike in prices going hand-in-hand with wage deflation but this is given as inflation », 12 may 2021, in http://rivincitasociale.altervista.org/inflation-a-new-absurd-ecologist-bourgeois-cycle-is-announced-with-a-hike-in-prices-going-hand-in-hand-with-wage-deflation-but-this-is-given-as-inflation-12-may-2021/
3 ) « Paris Agreement, climate, decarbonisation and the problems with ETS: the climate crime against emerging countries and against the vast majority of humanity to be frozen at the unequal development level of 1990 », in http://rivincitasociale.altervista.org/paris-agreement-climate-decarbonization-and-the-problems-with-ets-the-climate-crime-against-emerging-countries-and-against-the-vast-majority-of-humanity-to-be-frozen-at-the-unequal-development-lev/
4 ) « Climate and indoctrination » March, 2019 in http://rivincitasociale.altervista.org/climate-and-indoctrination-march-2019/
Paul De Marco
NOTES:
1 ) As we know, the Ozone layer hole was an invented pretext to mobilise public opinion. The problem was that societies had « matured » ( F. Perroux ). This meant that products like fridges and air-conditioning functioning with CFCs had been massified but their product-life-cycles were fairly long; new markets had dried up and new sales were limited to the replacement of existing parks. Condemning CFCs and replacing these chemical elements – Dupont de Nemours already had patents for substitutes – held the promise of having to recycle and replace all the existing products! I presented the argument long time ago.
Now CFCs had nothing to do with the hole in the Ozone layer and the new products might even be more harmful. Be it as it may, here is the situation today: « Protocole de Montréal et trou d’ozone Couche d’Ozone, ou l’histoire d’un trou qui ne se bouche pas »,27 septembre 2022 / Association des climato-réalistes, : https://www.climato-realistes.fr/couche-dozone-ou-lhistoire-dun-trou-qui-ne-se-bouche-pas/
For the Yasuni Park promises, see : « In July 2013, Correa formed a commission to evaluate the Yasuni-ITT initiative’s progress to date. The commission concluded that the economic results were not sufficient. On August 15, Correa scrapped the plan citing poor follow-through from the international community.[17] “The world has failed us”, he said, calling the world’s richest countries hypocrites who emit most of the world’s greenhouse gases while expecting nations like his to sacrifice economic progress for the environment.[2] Through an executive order, he liquidated the Yasuni-ITT trust fund formally ending the initiative. During the six-year history of the initiative, only US$336 million had been pledged, Correa said (in contrast to the $1.6 billion stated in the report cited above), and of that only US$13.3 million had actually been delivered.[17] » in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yasun%C3%AD_National_Park 2 ) See: « For an open multilateral world without monetary-suzerainty meddling in internal affairs and extraterritoriality and for bilateral credit lines and public credit », April 7 2022, in http://rivincitasociale.altervista.org/for-an-open-multilateral-world-without-monetary-suzerainty-meddling-in-internal-affairs-and-extraterritoriality-for-bilateral-credit-lines-and-public-credit-april-7-2022/